By: Saeed Akhtar, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Tilbury Times Reporter
The Lower Thames Valley Conservation Authority has issued a Watershed Condition Statement – Flood Outlook for smaller watercourses, directed to Municipal Flood Coordinators of Municipalities and the media. Environment and Climate Change Canada has issued a Yellow Warning – Freezing Rain for tomorrow. Forecasts for liquid precipitation are highly variable, ranging from 5 to 30 mm, and areas of ponding, standing water, and localized flooding could be seen around the watershed. If the higher rainfall amounts appear, some smaller watercourses could rise and spill their banks.
A weather system is expected to move into the region tomorrow morning, with temperatures around the freezing point when it arrives. Forecasts are calling for freezing rain, prompting ECCC to issue the Yellow Warning – Freezing Rain. With temperatures near freezing, there is uncertainty about the form of precipitation and the total amount expected. Other forecasts vary widely, predicting between 5 and 30 mm of liquid rainfall. Ground conditions are semi-frozen, and freezing rain could create a layer of ice across the landscape, making it unclear how much water the ground will absorb. Additional rain is forecast for Sunday.
If higher rainfall amounts occur, ponding, standing water, and localized flooding may develop. Smaller watercourses could rise, and some may spill into adjacent low-lying areas. Given the higher-end rainfall forecasts, the LTVCA may need to operate the McGregor Creek Diversion Channel in Chatham. The Thames River may rise somewhat in response to the rain, but it is not expected to reach flows requiring flood messaging.
People are advised to take extra caution and avoid rivers, ditches, and streams. Any remaining ice on these watercourses should be considered unsafe. Slippery banks, unstable ice, and fast-moving cold water can be dangerous, and freezing rain will make conditions even more slippery. Standing water can also present unseen hazards. Children, pets, and livestock should be kept away from the water.
Types of flood bulletins include: Watershed Condition Statement – Safety Bulletin, which warns of high flows, unsafe banks, melting ice, or other dangers for recreational users, with flooding not expected; Watershed Condition Statement – Flood Outlook, which provides early notice of potential flooding based on forecasts of heavy rain, snowmelt, or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, ice jams, or erosion; Flood Watch Bulletins, indicating flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities and advising preparedness; and Flood Warning Bulletins, issued when flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities.
Officials will continue to monitor the situation and update this advisory as necessary. This message will be in effect until December 28th.
